The Argentine government is opening 2020 by issuing ~1.3 billion USD in USD denominated treaury notes to be subscribed directly by the local central bank (archived). This move comes despite Argentina being in acute default for failing to make payments on existing debt and openly claiming their intent to "renegotiate" the outstanding debts they aren't paying. The Pink House's Albert Fernandez is presently insisting that the bulk of "renegotiation" concerning Argentina's existing debt wil be aimed to fuck over local note holders instead of international holders, for points of "international law" he refuses to engage. Continue reading
Today saw the US Dollar fall against both the Peso Uruguayo and Brazil's Real with the dollar dropping more than one percent with respect to Uruguay's wholesale interbank rate compared to Friday (archived). Since Argentina's new criminal government was installed this very month and went on to pass an "Emergencia Económica" law, uncaring markets have taken the Peso Argentino down to 76.75 for a single dollar at the market determined "blue dollar" rate.
The Argentine goverment is claiming to sell dollars at both a "wholesale" rate of 60 pesos to the dollar which they don't while they have started actually selling dollars at a "solidarity" rate 30% higher than their entirely hallucinated "wholesale" rate. This Argentine reinvention of the "convertible ruble" was initially proposed with the "tourist dollar" label and comes as Argentina once again is selectively defaulting on its debts.
For the second week in a row Uruguayan Naval forces were attacked by youth along the Rambla Charles De Gaulle in the early morning hours. Roughly 12 hours earlier, the same location had hosted a victory celebration for Uruguay's president elect Luis Lacalle Pou which was attened by several tens of thousand Uruguayos and Uruguayas (archived).
The violence allegedly began as members of Uruguay's Naval Prefectura were providing protection for transit inspectors carrying out a fairly routine operation. The mood of this sort of operation in the past has usually been rather jovial with youth in attendance laughing at the misforune of their compatriots suffering the indignity of seeing their ambiguously owned and dubiously roadworthy vehicles hauled away on flat bed trucks. This time the transit inspector's naval protection force was met with rocks and bottles thrown by rebels who escaped naval jurisdiction by crossing the street and continuing their campaign of destruction before scattering. Continue reading
Following Luis Lacalle Pou's narrow ballot victory tonight in counted votes, the Uruguayan electoral court is refusing to declare a winner in the election until the ballot envelopes set aside as "observed" are opened on Tuesday and the parties are given an opportunity to dispute the intention behind votes counted as anulled. With Luis's margin of victory just under the number of votes set aside as "observed", the Frente Amplio candidate theoretically has a chance to win if he seizes nearly all of the "observed" votes.
In the October election the Frente Amplio only won 30% of the "observed" ballots, a figure notably below the 39% in normal balloting when they lost the legislature. Observed votes are typically cast by disabled older, conservative voters requiring assistance to place their voting sheet in their balloting envelope.
The observed votes are further dwarfed by votes determined to be blank or anulled during the initial count leaving the possibility Uruguay gets to experience the extended uncertainty that gripped the US during the 2000 "hanging chad" controvery. In several circuits there were complaints of voting sheets for Luis Lacalle Pou's National Party in several circuits having been discretely marked in ways that would lead them to being anulled under Uruguay's strict anti-vote buying rules (archived).
By all measures Luis Lacalle Pou appears to have won the Presidential election today and counting observed and disputably anulled ballots should serve only to increase his margin of victory, but the space exists for Uruguay's left to steal the Presidency. Frente Amplio candidate Daniel Martínez just now got on stage and refused to concede the Presidential race to Luis Lacalle Pou's superior number of votes.
Last night a bus belonging to Uruguay's Armada Nacional transporting sailors assigned to secure ballot boxes during today's Presidential balloting was attacked by stone throwing militants of the Electronic Dance Movement outside the Parador Kibón Avanza in Pocitos (archived). Five sailors were wounded.
A similar gathering of Electronic Dance Militants preceded the first round of balloting in October. During both gatherings, little actual dancing was observed as attendees were more inclined to sway back and forth while occasionally bobbing their heads. The crowd stretched from the Pocitos bus terminal to the intersection of the Rambla Pte. Charles De Gaulle and Rambla Republica de Peru, a stretch where local youth normally gather most nights to blast cumbia music and pray some girls show up. Occasionally these prayers appear to receive ansers.
Nationalist candidate Luis Lacalle Pou is expected to win today's ballot by a margin of 5 to 11 percent over Frente Amplio candidate Daniel Martínez of the Socialist Party.
The Yellow Jacket rebellion against the French despot Macron has now been going on for an entire calendar year. Macronist forces deployed chemical weapons and water cannons against French resistance fighters, as is their custom (archived).
The resignation and departure of Evo Morales appears to have resulted in an escalation of civil unrest in Bolivia. While the fall of Morales has some elements in common with common color revolutions, the speed with which he was ejected suggests actual discontent with Morales and his obnoxious spin on "third way" socialism fueled his fall. Morales further failed to cultivate active urban male supporters capable of keeping the military and police in check along the line of Maduro's collectivos in Venezuela. Morales indefensibly failed to failed to develop an entrenched network of supporters inside the capital and bet his entire regime on the loyalty of the countryside.
The current increase in Bolivian unrest appears to be driven by Cocaleros and other agrarian supporters of Evo Morales slowly making their way to La Paz. Prolonged conflict in Bolivia around these lines can be expected to influence cocaine prices, especially in Europe, in the short to mid term.
A Mexican military plane carrying Evo Morales and other recently resigned Bolivian government socialists into Mexican asylum was diverted to Paraguay to refuel after Peru closed their airspace to the plane's political cargo (archived). Chile and Ecuador are alleged to have closed their airspace and airports as well. In the end, Brazil allowed Mexico the use of its airspace to make the coca growing would be Aymaran Tito into a northern hemisphere problem.
Unrest in South America appear to be picking up the pace with Bolivian President Evo Morales announcing new elections with no apparent palliative effect on the popular, military supported revolt against the leftist leader (archived). Similarly, rebellion in Chile has persisted long after the local USG aligned government there walked away from the transit fare hikes which triggered that civil unrest. Other governments on the continent, USG alligned and USG hostile alike, seem to have either some level of active civil unrest ongoing or ready conditions that will trigger unrest in the near future set.
Update: Evo Morales Resigned +/- a few minutes of this piece's original publication.
Uruguay's Vice President, Senator elect, and wife of former President Jose Mujica, Lucía Topolansky has promised "an enormous social mobilization" if her coalition's presidential candidate loses the November 24th Presidential election in Uruguay (archived). According to local norms this is likely to take the form of general strikes, workplace occupations, organized vandalism, intense littering, and some level of rioting.
Topolansky's Frente Amplio coalition gathered less than 40% of the vote in the legislative round of the election with most of their Senate and lower legislative seats going to Topolansky's radical Popular Participation Movement and the differently radical Communist Part of Uruguay together enjoying a dominant position in the coalition's legislative bank. Self described moderate parties within the coalition including that of their Presidential nominee won a trivial number of seats.
The Presidential candidates of all other Parties gaining more than one percent of the vote endorsed National Party candidate Luis Lacalle Pou for the presidency during their concession speeches. Per their own self representations, the Popular Participation Movement claims to do the things they do for the sake of "democracy" with their definition of democracy showing no regard for actual electoral results.
Chile has canceled the APEC summit they were scheduled to host after persistent riots erupted following a transit fare hike (archived). APEC is not to be confused with ASEAN, a reliable source of lulz during the Hussein Bahamas administration. China was tentatively scheduled to undertake some sort of negotiation with the USG at the canceled summit.