Largest Bitcoin Bet Resolved

The largest Bitcoin bet in terms of absolute value, where on Mircea Popescu laid down 1000 BTC of his own funds on the proposition that Bitcoin would outperform Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway class A stock has been resolved as "No" with Bitcoin's exchange rate having suffered over the past 12 months. A year ago Mircea announced the bet on his blog Trilema and further declared that to hedge the bet he had sold Berkshire. Asked about how he felt about the bet's final outcome he offered:

I could afford to lose it. While nobody that makes this sort of bets exists to my knowledge, should we wish to imagine their existence as a literary device, it'd necessarily be the case they bet to win. The way fiction usually works, little audience-alter-ego David challenges Goliath, wow and behold, only one David that ever dared! and then he wins. Here, it's more like… and then he loses, and shrugs it off, and Goliath dies anyway.

The total sum that accumulated on the bet was 5514.62 Bitcoin with 4393.47 Bitcoin on "No" and 1121.15 Bitcoin bet on "Yes" with Bitcoin trading for triple digit numbers of dollars over the entire span. Asked whether there was any remorse over the fact that in either of the two previous 12 month periods "Yes" would have won:

I don't think it's either a pity or the wrong 12 months. As to the pity, mind that I've to date spent upwards of 50,000 Bitcoin on the general purpose of making Bitcoin exist. A thousand here is a tiny fraction of that. As to the wrong 12 months, they were the right 12 months, being in early 2014. That was the year when Buffett claimed to look for a short, and then claimed to not have found one. That was the year Buffett had to come out with his endearingly senile "belief in American manifest destiny." It was the right year.

So while Bitcoin's exchange reported value lost in the case of this particular bet, greater than the loss is the fact that Bitcoin continues to enjoy and benefit from the presence of serious people committed to seriously investing their own skin in the venture of building an environment around Bitcoin which can render the fiat world obsolete.

2 thoughts on “Largest Bitcoin Bet Resolved

  1. And how much did he put on "no"?

  2. Not as painful as that big payout on option contracts, in retrospect.

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